But it was mostly because only a little over half my data overlapped his.
From his data I used the 2nd and 3rd months production data because the first month’s data was often for less than one full month.
This was a very time consuming process since each well number had to be searched then copied and pasted into my Excel spreadsheet, one well at a time.
The right axis as well as the horizontal axis is the 24 hour barrels sort number. One can clearly see that the higher the 1st measured 24 hour production the higher the daily production for the next full, or nearly full, month.
Using the well numbers, I have managed to match 1,127 wells in my database with the same well number in Enno’s data.
There were sometimes great anomalies in the data so to smooth things out, on the first three charts below, I used a 50 well average. The horizontal and right axis is first 24 hour barrels.We can now say, with very strong conviction, that the first 24 hours of measured production will tell us just how well that particular well is likely to perform in the future.I think this leaves little doubt that the BOPD number that the NDIC reports in their Daily Activity Report Index is a very good guide to what kind of future production we can expect from any particular well.In the NDIC’s Daily Activity Reports they publish “WELLS RELEASED FROM “TIGHT HOLE” STATUS” as well as “PRODUCING WELL COMPLETED”.By searching these two lists, then eliminating the duplicates that appear on both lists, we find that perhaps 70 to 80 percent of all wells report their first 24 hours of measured production. The first measured 24 hour production from Bakken wells is a very good predictor of the future production of that well.And it has also been confirmed that new wells with higher well numbers are producing a lot less.The data is in this format: If you divide “Oil” by “Days” you get barrels per day for what I presume is the first month.I collected data on 332 from this source that matches well numbers from my “first 24 hour” data base from July and August 2014.Of the 1,127 wells in this sample, 87 or 7.7% had no third month production.Probably because they had not on been line long enough.